Saturday, September 19, 2009

Fantasy Picks - Week 2

QB - Jamarcus Russell
Russell surprisingly didn't look TOO bad vs the Chargers, so I have to imagine he'll have a pretty god day against one of the softest defenses in the league. It also helps that Brandon Flowers just may very well be out for this game. Of course, a player like this always comes with a risk, but if you need a favorable matchup, this is one of the best you're gonna get.
Projection: 22/38, 348 yards, 2 TD, 1 int

RB - Mewelde Moore
Mew isn't going to get you a bunch of rushing yards. However, he does bring in receiving value, which could be huge against a Bears defense without Urlacher. I expect the Chicago front to keep a lid on Parker and Mendenhall, and then the Steelers will fall back to the passing game. That's when Moore comes in. When Ben is going to check down, its going to be to Mew, and without Urlacher there to terrorize the middle of the field, he could bust some huge plays.
Projection: 4 carries, 9 yards. 8 catches, 94 yards, 1 TD

WR - Louis Murphy
Two Raiders? Even I'll admit this is ridiculous. However, the same case with Russell, Murphy has an incredibly favorable matchup, even more so without Flowers, and he's easily the most talented (active) WR on the team, and the only deep threat on the team that can actually catch. I fully expect Murphy and Zach Miller to account for most of the receiving yards just like the SD game.
Projection: 10 catches, 142 yards, 2 TDs

TE - Robert Royal
Brady Quinn loves him some TEs. And with the Broncos' surprisingly improved secondary, Quinn is going to hit 'em early and often. It's obvious he has no affinity with his WRs, Braylon in particular, so treat this guy as CLE's WR1.
Projection: 12 catches, 122 yards, 1 TD

Defense - Washington Redskins
Kinda obvious here, but not a good week for defense matchups. A solid defense vs a just terrible offense should be snapped up ASAP if available, which it usually is in most leagues.
Projection: 6 points surrendered, 6 sacks, 2 ints, TD

Friday, September 11, 2009

Fantasy Picks - Week 1

A weekly look at some favorable matchups for the less than obvious players. There'll be no "Start of the Week: Adrian Peterson vs. the Lions" here.

QB - David Garrard - High Risk Warning
Garrard has an improved o-line, and what seems to be fairly competent receivers. They should be more than match for Indy's banged up secondary. Bob Sanders is confirmed to be out, Marlin Jackson may sit out as well, and if Bethea and Hayden play, they'll be playing at less than 100%. Garrard has a good enough arm to exploit the broken secondary, but as I said, he comes with a risk; The Jags will be starting two rookie tackles vs. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.
Prediction: 24/32, 344 yds, 3 TDs, 1 int

RB - Leon Washington
Washington is out to prove he's with the monster contract he's been demanding, and Jets seem willing to give him the opportunities to do so. His first chance comes against the Texans, who just traded away their best run stopper in the middle. He'll likely still be the second horse to Thomas Jones, but he has enough explosiveness that he'll like finish the game with a much better statline.
Prediction: 11 carries for 102 yards, 5 catches for 47 yards, 2 total TDs

WR - Anthony Gonzalez
Taking over as the new featured receiver opposite Reggie Wayne, he faces a favorable matchup against the Jaguars porous secondary. With Rashean Mathis shadowing Wayne all day, Gonzo2 should have no problem getting open and hauling in some big ones. The only thing that could take away from a big day for him is losing targets to an equally good play: Dallas Clark.
Prediction: 7 catches, 112 yds, 2 TDs

TE - Jeremy Shockey
Okay, kinda obvious. Any player vs the Lions is a near sure bet, but Shockey has been going undrafted in most leagues, which makes for an insane pickup value at the TE position. Shockey is athletic and strong, and finally seems to be on the same page as Brees, making for a monster matchup.
Prediction: 6 catches, 96 yds, TD

Defense - New Orleans Saints
The suspensions of Will Smith and Charles Grant are officially on hold for at least Week 1, meaning the newly energized pass rush will be in full effect against a weak o-line and a rookie QB. New DC Gregg Williams is taking a more aggressive stand with the defense, and will use every trick he's got to harass the rookie signal caller.
Prediction: 6 points surrendered, 4 sacks, 2 ints

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Finishing the Records

A quick cap off of my projected records since the season is sneaking up on us quicker than I realized.

Chicago Bears 9-7
Detroit Lions 3-12
Green Bay Packers 11-5
Minnesota Vikings 8-8

The Bears adding Cutler was a nice story for them, but they lack enough weapons for him to lead the team through the division, and the Vikes may have the "best back in the league" but ultimately, I think it's the Packers and their potent offense that'll take the North.

Atlanta Falcons 8-8
Carolina Panthers 8-8
New Orleans Saints 11-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-14

All of the South faces a pretty rough schedule this year. I don't really like putting the Falcons and Panthers at 8-8 each, but looking at the schedule, I really can't do better. The Saints have the best chance to take the division this year with their potent offense, and a defense that amazingly looks dramatically improved from last year. I can't the bucs doing anything other than a tailspin.

Arizona Cardinals 7-9
San Francisco 49ers 9-7
Seattle Seahawks 6-10
St. Louis Rams 1-15

No homer. Honestly. Looking at the matchups, trying without any bias, this is what I expect from the West. I think Warner is going to struggle this year, and we'll be seeing Leinart again sooner than later. The Niners are going smashmouth with Gore, and with Hill managing the passing game, they should be able to pile up a respectable amount of wins-- even if they would end up going absolutely nowhere in the playoffs. The Seahawks aren't a terrible team, but they really need to get their house in order. I honestly believe they'll do better next year, but not this one. The Rams, however, ARE a terrible team.

My Super Bowl prediction?
Chargers 24
Saints 27
Won in the final seconds of the game.

Saturday, September 5, 2009

Projected Records - NFC East

Dallas Cowboys 8-8
Keys to .500: The East is stacked, and the 'Boys have a pretty rough schedule. That, coupled with the loss of their biggest offensive playmaker spells trouble. Dallas has one of the deepest backfields in the league, but are now extremely think at WR after the departure of Terrell Owens. Roy Williams should step up and make an adequate replacement for the perrenial Pro Bowler, but after him, the most talented receivers on the field are the tight ends. Look for one of the most run heavy Cowboys teams in years as they try to get all three of their starting -calibur backs involved in the action. The defense isn't too spectacular either, lacking real playmakers after Ware and Ratliff, without even a solid #2 CB (Which they recently declared will be a rotation between youngsters Scandrick and Jenkins). The vanilla coaching wont do anything to help the situation either. And then there's always the December Curse...

Philadelphia Eagles 12-4
Keys to Vicktory: I don't think there is a more solid team in the division, maybe even the conference. Even if he is in decline, McNabb is one of the most complete QBs in the league; srtong-armed, accurate, smart, athletic, and quick. They addressed their messy backup QB issue by signing the controversial Michael Vick, who is rusty right now, but showing flashes of his old self. Once he gets up to speed, he'll probably be the best backup QB in the league. Their offensive line looks fantastic on papers after acquiring Peters and Andrews. Brent Celek has stepped up as a more than capable starting TE, their WRs are incredibly deep, they drafted a RB who may very well end up being Westbrook Jr. and the defense is just studly even after losing Brian Dawkins and Lito Shepperd. Not to mention they have a ton of Wildcat weapons now with Vick, DeSean, and Westbrook. If I weren't biased, the Eagles would by my pick to represent the NFC in the Superbowl.

New York Giants 8-8
Keys to .500: I want to rate the Giants lower, I really do, but they benefit from a painfully easy schedule. Of course, the biggest headlines out of the Giants' camp this year was Plaxico being stupid (I loved hearing Jim Brown rip into him) and Derrick Ward departing for Tampa. Bradshaw looks ready to take Ward's old role, but who will take Plaxico's? Right now, the starters are Domenik Hixon and Steve Smith. Unless the Giant's plan on having Hixon paralyze all the defenders around him, I can't see this passing game working with a mediocre QB and even more mediocre WRs. The defense will likely be as stout as last year, but they better prepare to be on the field a lot more. If the Giants want to do any better than .500, they'll have to lean heavily on Jacobs and the defense. And I mean heavily.

Washington Redskins 10-6
Keys to Success: If any team is willing to pay players, it's the Redskins. The dropped cash bombs on Albert Haynesworth and DeAngelo Hall, and added to these defensive beasts by drafting one of the top defensive prospects, Brian Orakpo. While the defense looks really good, they have some trouble on the other side of the ball. The offensive line is weak, Portis is in decline, and none of their receivers has stepped up to take the #2 job next to Santana Moss. The bright side? Jason Campbell is in a contract year, and he's playing for his career. He knows if he wants to be anything more than a backup, he has to step up and lead the team this year, meaning that no matter who the #2 WR, Campbell is going to do his best to put his WRs in a position to make plays. I expect him to take command of this offense and drive it like we've never seen him do before, and with the help of a solid defense, he may just be able to win them games, and the Skins could be a surprise playoff team.